Should You Wait for the Solar Tax Credit to Come Back?

Pros and Cons of Waiting for the Solar Tax Credit to Return

A Clear Guide for Homeowners

In July 2025, the One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB) became law, putting an end to the 30% federal residential solar tax credit. That abrupt policy shift has led many prospective solar buyers to put their plans on hold, with the hope that a future federal administration (perhaps after 2028) might restore this incentive. Let’s break down the pros and cons of waiting for that to happen.

 

Pros of Waiting for the Solar Tax Credit to Return

1. Possible Future Incentives

If a future federal government (perhaps a progressive administration after the 2028 election) passes legislation to reinstate or replace the lost tax credit, homeowners who waited could benefit. Renewed incentives could include:

• A restored investment tax credit (ITC) at 30% or similar
• Credits for home batteries or EV integrations
• Expanded incentives targeting income equity or environmental justice
  
  

A return of incentives could happen, but there’s no guarantee this will take place. Future legislation depends on political conditions, Congress composition, and budget priorities.

2. Strategic Financial Planning

Waiting might let some homeowners:

• Save more upfront to reduce net costs once the credit is gone
• Improve credit scores to get better solar loan terms
• Consider battery storage, EV charging, or other electrification projects in a bundle
  
  

Strategic planning may reduce financial stress, but also delays energy savings.

 

 

Cons of Waiting for the Solar Tax Credit to Return

1. The 30% Credit Is Gone Indefinitely Unless Congress Acts

The most important point: the federal residential solar tax credit no longer exists for systems installed after 2025. There is no phase-down or hold-over. If your system wasn’t placed in service by December 31, 2025, you lose the benefit entirely under current law. 

Meaning, it would take an act of Congress to bring it back, which is far from guaranteed. If it doesn’t come back, waiting could mean paying full price for solar panels and equipment with no federal rebate, in addition to missing out on significant energy savings due to increased utility rates and other time-bound incentives like 1:1 net metering). 

 

2. Risk of Losing 1:1 Net Metering Savings

Another often-overlooked downside of waiting is the risk that current 1:1 net metering policies may change. Today, many homeowners benefit from 1:1 net metering, meaning every excess kilowatt-hour of solar energy they send back to the grid is credited at the same retail rate they pay for electricity. This policy is a major reason rooftop solar makes sense financially for so many households.

If net metering is revised or reduced:

• Exported solar energy may be credited at a lower wholesale or avoided-cost rate
• Solar payback periods could lengthen significantly
• Systems may need batteries to remain financially optimal
• The overall value of rooftop solar could decrease for future adopters

Explore a specific example of how net metering policy can impact solar savings.  

Signs increasingly point toward a policy shift. Utilities and regulators across the country are actively re-evaluating net metering structures, and announcements regarding changes to 1:1 net metering in the Puget Sound region are expected sometime in 2026.

3. Definite loss of savings due to increased utility rates

Waiting to go solar also means remaining fully exposed to utility rate increases, and those increases are already happening. In Seattle, Seattle City Light has estimated annual rate increases of 7–10% starting in 2027, driven by major infrastructure upgrades, grid modernization, and clean-energy investments. Puget Sound Energy customers have already felt this firsthand, with rates increasing 14% last year and another 12% increase this year. 

 

Every year you wait, you’re paying more for the same electricity and locking yourself into higher baseline costs. Even if the tax credit does return, the future cost of electricity may significantly decrease your net savings compared to going solar today.

4. Policy Reversals Are Uncertain and Slow

Even if a future administration wants to restore the tax credit:

• Legislation must pass both houses of Congress, a process that can take months or years
• The restored credit might look different (e.g., lower percentage, capped amounts, or income limits)
• Political gridlock could delay action indefinitely

Restoration isn’t impossible, but it’s far from certain at this point in time.

 

 

Practical Takeaways for Homeowners

If you’re thinking about waiting for the federal solar tax credit to return, be prepared for:

• No guaranteed timeline
• Possible increased out-of-pocket costs
• Expected policy shifts around net metering
• Increased utility rates over time

There’s always a chance future lawmakers will restore the residential solar tax credit, especially if energy policy becomes a major campaign issue. But policymakers move slowly, and legislative outcomes are never assured. Rather than betting on a future policy that may not materialize, Seattle homeowners can choose a more certain path to savings and energy independence by acting now before Washington incentives change. 

 

 

Author Bio:

Macie Mancini joined Solterra Solar as a Solar Design Consultant in 2025. She holds a Master of Science in Engineering Design Innovation with a focus on sustainable systems and products from Northwestern University. She brings deep, cross-disciplinary knowledge that enhances her solar designs—from circular economy principles to user-product interactions and green energy electromechanics. Macie excels at helping clients build custom solar solutions for their homes and communities. From designing arrays to ensuring clients understand their system, she delivers a highly personalized customer experience every step of the way.